Wednesday, May 25, 2005

More Follow Up on Pittsburgh's Mayoral Election

So, back to the Pittsburgh Mayoral Primary results.

I said a week ago I needed a better look at the data. I took a better look at the data, and this is what I got:
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This map shows the Voting District Winners in the primary election 2005 by ward. Ward doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot, you get no electoral votes, that's for damned sure, but it gives you a rough idea as to how different neighborhoods voted, and a better idea as to what segments of the neighborhood voted for who.

All Politics is Local, as Tip O'Neill said. This is how local this race was.

The obvious remarks are that Bob O'Connor won big and broadly across the city neighborhoods, picking up local presinct wins across all segments of the city... except for a big blue blob in Shadyside, Friendship, North Point Breeze, Point Breeze, and Squirrel Hill. That portion of the City, The People's Republic of the 14th Ward, fell to the armed ruffians of Bill Peduto. Similarly, Bill picked up support in segments of Highland Park, Southside, and the Mexican War Streets.

As I said before, Bill's wins were not broad based, but rather reflective of a bourgeoise-bohemian ethic, which is popular in certain segments of the City... namely the ones listed above.

Lamb, by contrast, clung to victories in equally concentrated areas: Duquesne Heights, Mt. Washington, Brookline, and Beechview. I would characterize these neighborhoods as post-war suburban Pittsburgh ethic; upper working & middle class.

Kendrick did pick up some wins at St. Clair and in the Upper Hill, which seems to reflect an inability of any of the other candidates (with the exception of Bob) to successfully court African-American voters. Somehow Henderson picked up a chunk of the Southside Flats. I'm scratching my head over that one.

In any case, take a look at the turnout:
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A lot of heavy turnout in the Peduto won areas, as well as some very heavy turnout in a few key O'Connor areas. Probably helped. Otherwise, it's generally poor turnout, so I'm not reading too much into this map.

My thesis, however, is this: the Peduto campaign was a narrowly focused campaign that concentrated on a few, key areas. This is not part of a larger movement, but rather a microlocalized political phenomenon which, unless it embraces a larger popular message that appeals to a larger swath of Pittsburgh, is doomed to fester away.

And in the next few posts, I'll show you why I think this and what it means for the future of the progressive cause in Pittsburgh.

6 comments:

Maria said...

Not having the $$$ of the other candidates, the Peduto campaign really concentrated on a few key areas going for the magic 25,000 number. More cash in hand would have allowed for a broader-based campaign.

O said...

Shhh Maria! You're giving away the ending!

Next you'll be telling me that "Rosebud" is the sled or that Vader is Luke Skywalker's father. Sheesh!

But yes, you're right: money = votes. O'Connor steamrolled over everyone on this campaign without much of a "message" to be heard. Those relying on "issues" fared far worse.

At risk of ending all remaining suspense, the questions I'd like to address are (1)how to either get the money to the message or the message to the money, (2) what would a race without O'Connor have looked like, and, more esoteric, (3) what would a race without Tom Murphy have looked like.

Anonymous said...

Bob has 3 races worth of name ID and spent $1.8 million to Peduto's $225,000 and Lamb's $390,000. He was going to win.

Your obviously a Lamb partisan because you fail to note that PEDUTO BEATS LAMB IN 20 of THE CITY'S 32 WARDS !!!!!

I REPEAT:
Peduto beats Lamb in 20 of the 32 wards

Peduto 20 (1,2,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,16,17,21,22,23,25,26)

Lamb 12 (3*,15,18,19,20,24,27,28,29,30,31,32)

THERE ARE 15 Wards outside of “East End” base Peduto wins over Lamb:
(1,2,5,6,9,10,12,13,16,17,21,22,23,25,26)

Number of Wards outside of “South of the Rivers” base Lamb wins over Peduto
(3*,15,24,27)

Face it, Lamb lost. He had more money, Chamber Support from Nello, Murphy support, ( and folks like Feder, Sciulli and working for him) ... AND HE LOST TO PEDUTO ALL OVER THE CITY in Trendy neighborhoods as well as working class and poor neighborhoods.

Peduto didn't have city-wide name ID before the race and Lamb did. Yet,Peduto beat Lamb across the city. He Has a better future and ran a better campaign than lamb. He know has county-wide name ID and a big future. You lost. GET OVER IT.


(* note Lamb won the 3rd Ward over Peduto by one vote (61 to 60) – it is the only African American Ward Lamb beat Peduto)

Anonymous said...

Your turnout map is COMPLETELY FLAWED.

If a precinct is big by registration it is going to have a lot of voters compared to say 20 or 28th ward precincts that have far fewer registered voters per precinct.

THAT IS WHY TURNOUT IS MEASURED BY PERCENTAGE OF PEOPLE WHO VOTED AND NOT RAW NUMBERS. Your map punishes someone who has big precincts. It doesn't refelct what TURNOUT was like.

If your going to do the analysis do it right. Turnout = (# OF VOTERS/# OF REGISTERED)

Also, put up a map of Peduto versus Lamb citywide without O'Connor. I'd like to see that. It seems Peduto beat Lamb in all corners of the City outside of the South Hills (except in South Side where Peduto beats Lamb). Seems Lamb's Dad's Senate seat was the only area he did well.

Anonymous said...

Thanks very much ADB for the maps and effort.

Re: Lamb bashing.

First, please respect the English language and use the past tense to refer to events that have already happened, not "sports-speak" that applies fake immediacy through overly liberal use of the present tense. (And here I thought Peduto supporters were well-educated.)

Second, Lamb had broad appeal, just not as broad as O'Connor's. A head-to-head race between Lamb and Peduto would have exposed Bill's narrow, divisive, campaign strategy and his inability to connect with average Pittsburghers.

Third, I like Bill and agree with most of his ideas and I hope that he can throw off the elitist baggage that he has quite willingly loaded onto his back. Failing that, he'll remain the darling of the one-quarter of Pittsburgh voters who think they know what's best for everyone else and just can't figure out why the masses don't see the light.

Anonymous said...

Thanks very much to ADB for the maps and effort.

Re: Lamb bashing.

First, please respect the English language and use the past tense to refer to events that have already happened, not "sports-speak" that applies fake immediacy through exclusive use of the present tense. (and here I thought Peduto supporters were edumacated.)

Second, Lamb had broad appeal, just not as broad as O'Connor's. A head-to-head race between Lamb and Peduto would have exposed Bill's narrow, divisive, campaign strategy and his inability to connect with average Pittsburghers.

Third, I like Bill and agree with most of his ideas and I hope that he can throw off the elitist baggage that he has willingly loaded onto his back. Failing that, he'll remain the darling of the one-quarter of Pittsburgh voters who think they know best and just can't figure out why the masses don't see the light.