Election 2007 (cont'd)

Compare the following map from Mr. Briem:



And from yours truly in 2005:

This means something... this is important.

Brave New World

I'm sure some of you out there in Blog land would like me to say that I didn't post much last night because I was crying into my beer over the victory by Luke Ravenstahl over Mark DeSantis et al. In fact, I was crying last night over my stupid fucking-piece-of-shit router that decided to explode into little tiny pieces.

Perhaps the router was crying.

In any event, it's fixed now. And here's my thought on the aftermath and what happens from here:

(1) While Luke manage to win, he did, apparently, record the worst performance by an incumbent Democratic mayor since the City started to elect those types of people. This doesn't bode well for the Republicans, but I'm sure that it's piqued the interest of other potential 2009 candidates with little Ds affixed to their name.

Politicians, like the sharks they are, can smell blood in the water. If Luke doesn't show real results in the next year or if he continues to show the poor judgment tendencies he's shown in the past, he might want to consider running for a different office before a stronger contender reveals him/herself.

(2) The election added an air of legitimacy to the Ravenstahl administration who had been lambasted as an "Accidental Mayor" by his opponents. It also validated his policy and professional decisions over the last 14 months for what that's worth. I suppose that this means we'll be expecting more of the same.

(3) I'll predict a rash of more "housecleaning" in the works for City Government. My impression is that there are a lot of people who are "fully vested in pensions," as it were, and would rather not stick around for much more. I also get the impression that now that the election is over, Luke can finish his consolidation of power; a lot of Admiral Needas out there who have failed Darth Ravenstahl for the last time.

(4) On the plus side, it will give the Mayor's Office a bit more breathing room as they don't have to produce "results" as expediently. Perhaps they will back down on staff a bit too.

(5) Maybe they'll get a chance to get some organization together at the Mayor's Office, while they're at it. Perhaps in the next year somebody will eventually figure out what it is they're supposed to be doing over there.

In any event, eighteen months and we do it all over again...

Lord, get me a drink... and make it a double.

2007 General Election Results: Winner Triumph Over Loser

The AP is currently reporting that across America tonight, Winners are besting Losers in elections across the country. In most races, Winners are pulling in well over 50% of the vote, except in some races where they are pull a mere plurality.

The Winners fended off challenges from Losers to fill in elected positions from school board to State Governors. No Loser has managed to win a race since the Hays/Tilden election in the late 19th Century.

The Winners suffered several set backs and missteps throughout their campaigns, but managed to bounce back. Their proposals and policies, combined with their political heritage and track record, made the difference in what had been a hard fought race.

Winners assembled at jubilant celebrations where speeches were made congratulating themselves and thanking their Loser opponents. Several other news reports indicate that balloons and confetti were dropped and the Fleetwood Mac song "Don't Stop Believing" was played.

"We are happy that the constituency has chosen to embrace our vision and we hope, with your help, to move us forward," said the Winners.

At the Losers headquarters, the Losers thanked their opponents for a good race and challenged the newly elected "to work in the best interests of the constituents."

Winners will serve their respective terms until the next election, when it is expected that Losers will again mount a challenge to their office.

Final Voting Predictions

OK, here's where I put my money where my mouth is... which is not as some may expect, firmly welded to someone's backside.

Here are some things that I'm keeping in mind:

(1) Registration: This is the basic one - Democrats out number Republicans in this City. If things break they have in past, the Democrat has the advantage.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl

(2) Minority Voting Patterns: This too is a basic one - African Americans tend to vote Democrat. This is most apparent in the election of Jim Roddey (R) as County Executive years back; African American Neighborhoods just did not vote for him. The complication, however, is that the prominent New Pittsburgh Courrier has come out in favor of the Republican. Still, I'm going to wager that black voters in these neighborhoods are going to come out in favor of the party where they have the best chance of getting what they want.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl

(3) Disaffected Democrats (Left Wing): Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, Highland Park, Regent Square. All these neighborhoods have been hotbeds of left leaning local politics and all seemed to break for Bill Peduto in the last general election. The question I posited may months ago is whether O'Connor supporters would have broken for Peduto or Lamb, but a similar question could be asked as to whether Peduto supporters would break for Ravenstahl or DeSantis. I have a feeling that it's going to be the latter.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(4) Disaffected Democrats (Right Wing): The South Hills. Anyone who voted for Jim Motznik probably falls into this category. While according to Mr. Briem these are the areas that have the most Republican support, I see them having a more pro-life, old-guard, conservative mentality than what Mr. DeSantis offers. They may be conservatives, but they are conservative *Democrats*.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl

(5) Endorsements: Post-Gazette, Tribune-Review, New Pittsburgh Courier all endorsed DeSantis. For those Pittsburgh denizens who do not spend significant time on the Internet, this probably marked the first time that even the possibility of voting for a Republican even crossed their mind. It may plant a tiny seed of doubt.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(6) Off election year: Off year cycles are notoriously bad for turn out, but conversely good for the challenger.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(7) Weather: High of 43 with snow possible. Shitty weather = low turn out, which is also probably bad news for the incumbent.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(8) Steelers: I can barely make it into work after a MNF game, let alone function coherently. I'm going to guess that this is going to drive down the turn out just that much more. However, it seems that the Monday Night Football crew isn't really paying attention to the game anymore and have started blathering on and on about how great Tom Brady is... perhaps Steeler fans have gone to bed already. Still...

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(9) GOtV: Ravenstahl has money and a party machine behind him to help with a last minute push. Every vote counts in these close elections, especially if #s 6, 7, & 8 come into play.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl

(10) Media: Ravenstahl has consistently garnered bad press for himself, from the AirBurkle flap to the newest Playground Lead brouhaha. Normally any publicity is good publicity, but in this case it seems to show a flighty, distracted Mayor who cares more about the perks of the office than the job. DeSantis, on the other hand, has been getting a series of "could he be the first Republican Mayor since the Great Depression?" articles which paint him in a far more positive light.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

So, with that all said I'm predicting Ravenstahl to win, but in a barnburner. DeSantis will, if nothing else, post the highest percentage recorded by a Republican mayoral candidate in memory.

No matter who wins, however, a politically damaged Ravenstahl is sure to face a crowed Democratic field when we do this again in 18 months.

Christ, Not this Shit Again! - Spring 2007 Primary Edition

The ink is not even dried on the forged ballots from 2006, and already the Post-Gazette is talking about the Spring Primary race for Pittsburgh Mayor.

On the P-G's list are the following potential candidates for Mayor:

Luke Ravenstahl: Incumbent-ish

David Caliguiri: Son of Former Mayor

Mike Dawida: Ex-County Commissioner

Rich Fitzgerald: County Council President

Dan Frankel: State Representative

Michael Lamb: Prothonotary

Bill Peduto: City Councilman

Harry Readshaw: State Representative

In my opinion, the P-G isn't really thinking outside the box. There are dozens, nay, hundreds of potential candidates for the office of Mayor of Pittsburgh. Here are a smattering of potential candidates that they overlooked*:

JIM RODDEY
OK, the former chief executive no longer lives in the City and he's a Republican, but those things can be remedied with a quick trip to the Board of Elections. He's a known commodity and he didn't lose to that dope Cyril Wecht. Speaking of which...

CYRIL WECHT
Cyril Wecht is still, as of the writing of this post, under indictment. Normally, this would be a drawback, but in a city where a viable candidate for the County Political Committee can be an ex-con, Cyril would be a step up. Plus, he'd be great entertainment.

BOB O'CONNOR
Death isn't the handicap it used to be in politics. Former Attorney General John Ashcroft lost his Senate seat to a dead Mel Carnahan and Republican Glenda Dawson ran for a Texas State Legislator seat even though she was stiffer than Bob Dole's member. Bob has the added bonus of being more charismatic than any of the other candidates that the P-G listed.

TOM MURPHY
Well, political death is terminal.

HARVEY
Harvey is a 6 ft. talking rabbit that lives in Jimmy Stewart's head. Unfortunately, he's running on the Constitution Party Ticket, but otherwise he's the perfect candidate.

So, get used to it folks, we have another 5 1/2 months of this bullshit.

I have my space in the political fallout shelter reserved; first come, first served.

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Sorry, Woy I'm not running for mayor; I have some scruples, dude. Although, I will run for Supreme Overlord of Western Pennsylvania... again. [Damn Green Party!]