Monday, November 05, 2007

Final Voting Predictions

OK, here's where I put my money where my mouth is... which is not as some may expect, firmly welded to someone's backside.

Here are some things that I'm keeping in mind:

(1) Registration: This is the basic one - Democrats out number Republicans in this City. If things break they have in past, the Democrat has the advantage.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl

(2) Minority Voting Patterns: This too is a basic one - African Americans tend to vote Democrat. This is most apparent in the election of Jim Roddey (R) as County Executive years back; African American Neighborhoods just did not vote for him. The complication, however, is that the prominent New Pittsburgh Courrier has come out in favor of the Republican. Still, I'm going to wager that black voters in these neighborhoods are going to come out in favor of the party where they have the best chance of getting what they want.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl

(3) Disaffected Democrats (Left Wing): Squirrel Hill, Shadyside, Highland Park, Regent Square. All these neighborhoods have been hotbeds of left leaning local politics and all seemed to break for Bill Peduto in the last general election. The question I posited may months ago is whether O'Connor supporters would have broken for Peduto or Lamb, but a similar question could be asked as to whether Peduto supporters would break for Ravenstahl or DeSantis. I have a feeling that it's going to be the latter.
ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(4) Disaffected Democrats (Right Wing): The South Hills. Anyone who voted for Jim Motznik probably falls into this category. While according to Mr. Briem these are the areas that have the most Republican support, I see them having a more pro-life, old-guard, conservative mentality than what Mr. DeSantis offers. They may be conservatives, but they are conservative *Democrats*.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl

(5) Endorsements: Post-Gazette, Tribune-Review, New Pittsburgh Courier all endorsed DeSantis. For those Pittsburgh denizens who do not spend significant time on the Internet, this probably marked the first time that even the possibility of voting for a Republican even crossed their mind. It may plant a tiny seed of doubt.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(6) Off election year: Off year cycles are notoriously bad for turn out, but conversely good for the challenger.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(7) Weather: High of 43 with snow possible. Shitty weather = low turn out, which is also probably bad news for the incumbent.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(8) Steelers: I can barely make it into work after a MNF game, let alone function coherently. I'm going to guess that this is going to drive down the turn out just that much more. However, it seems that the Monday Night Football crew isn't really paying attention to the game anymore and have started blathering on and on about how great Tom Brady is... perhaps Steeler fans have gone to bed already. Still...

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis

(9) GOtV: Ravenstahl has money and a party machine behind him to help with a last minute push. Every vote counts in these close elections, especially if #s 6, 7, & 8 come into play.

ADVANTAGE: Ravenstahl
(10) Media: Ravenstahl has consistently garnered bad press for himself, from the AirBurkle flap to the newest Playground Lead brouhaha. Normally any publicity is good publicity, but in this case it seems to show a flighty, distracted Mayor who cares more about the perks of the office than the job. DeSantis, on the other hand, has been getting a series of "could he be the first Republican Mayor since the Great Depression?" articles which paint him in a far more positive light.

ADVANTAGE: DeSantis
So, with that all said I'm predicting Ravenstahl to win, but in a barnburner. DeSantis will, if nothing else, post the highest percentage recorded by a Republican mayoral candidate in memory.
No matter who wins, however, a politically damaged Ravenstahl is sure to face a crowed Democratic field when we do this again in 18 months.

4 comments:

Mark Rauterkus said...

My predictions, based on calls to thousands of Pittsburgh folks who vote in the past weeks --

Luke gets between 63 and 65 percent. Lib gets 3%. SWP gets 1%.

I was generous with the bulk of the not telling and undecided going to Luke.

Harder. Predict the outcome of 3 city council races and controller's race.

Sherry said...

my prediction:

i'm going to have a massive headache by day's end AND the signs on the edges of the roads will be there til thanksgiving.

Mark Rauterkus said...

My signs will be gone the instant the election ends -- poof!

All of my signs are made with recycled electrons.

Carbon based signs are more like "litter on a stick." (Ferlo's words)

Mark Rauterkus said...

Told ya! My polling results were perfect.