Monday, February 02, 2009

Reflections on 2nd District Special Election

Special elections are pretty much like the Special Olympics: even if you win... well, yeah, you know how the joke goes.

Couple thoughts though:

(1) Whoever wins here has a pretty good leg up when they have to run again for the regular election, which is scary because...

(2) No one shows up for special elections except the exceptionally dedicated or insane. Your target demographic, therefore, is the hardcore nutjob segment, the kind of person that calls her cats her "children," but...

(3) A good GOTV effort could get you enough temporary nutjobs voting for a particular candidate. We're probably talking about a (relative) handful of voters, except...

(4) No one cares about this election, or this District for that matter, even though it accounts for 1/9th of City Council.

(5) Tomorrow's forecast: Snow likely. Snow accumulation 1 to 2 inches. Highs in the upper 20s. Northwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. That's hardly the weather that would encourage voters to get out, and not particularly great weather for working the polls.

So, my predictions: this special election will be one by a fairly narrow margin with a very low turn out. And no matter who wins, the winner is still... well, you know.

10 comments:

Matt H said...

Anyone but Blotzer for this seat.

Maria said...

So you're endorsing the Republican.

Felix Dzerzhinsky said...

There's a proverb about pots and kettles, Maria. You endorsed Richard Mellon Scaife's candidate in the 2007 mayoral election.

Christopher Hixson said...

Well, I voted for Ravenstahl, but still nominally support Blotzer. Don't know why Matt H is so against her. I've met her, and she seems like a fine candidate. I have not met Smith, so I can't judge.

I do know that the P-G and the Comet have endorsed Blotzer, so it's not just me.

Bram Reichbaum said...

One could make the argument Hoagie is assailing Georgia Blotzer because he is an ACDC committeeman -- he could be distinguishing himself by playing the role of the Committee's attack dog on the Internet.

Of course, I don't doubt that he feels much of what he says. He spells it out pretty plainly in his blog. I'm surprised no comments have piled up on that post.

Bram Reichbaum said...

I'm calling Smith with 55%. If driving GOTV is huge, you've got to figure she'll have more of the establishment in place for her.

Anonymous said...

You also forgot all the folks that went downtown today for the parade. I'm sure that more than a few of them were from District 2, but I wonder if any of them made it to the polls on their way back.

Steelers > Special Election

Maria said...

Felix,

I wouldn't have called just anyone out on supporting a Republican -- that is not unless that someone was a poster boy for all things ACDC -- like Matt.

Matt H said...

"Don't know why Matt H is so against her. I've met her, and she seems like a fine candidate. I have not met Smith, so I can't judge."

Read my blog and find out. She refused to come to my end of town to even campaign. It showed in the results.

Matt H said...

"You also forgot all the folks that went downtown today for the parade. I'm sure that more than a few of them were from District 2, but I wonder if any of them made it to the polls on their way back."

That did not help the cause for sure. Cold weather, special election and a Steelers parade is bad for any election.